The goal of the Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment (WAE) program is the development and demonstration of predictive technology to better anticipate and act against terrorists. WAE is a revolutionary approach to identify predictive indicators of attacks by and the behavior of specific terrorists by examining their behavior in the broader context of their political, cultural and ideological environment.
Test results have demonstrated the feasibility of developing automated and adaptive behavior prediction models tuned to specific terrorist groups and individuals. Specifically, WAE has developed, in conjunction with DoD and the intelligence community, indications and warning models for select terrorist individuals and organizations. These indication and warning models have been tested historically, and in some cases operationally, to predict an active terrorist group's next action (attack/no attack, target characteristics, location characteristics, tactical characteristics, timeframes, and motivating factors), and test results have been shown to be statistically significant. To date, several models have been transitioned to DoD and the Intelligence Community partners. WAE will extend its predictive technology research to model a larger set of terrorist groups and individuals, and will strive to increase the level of detail for each predictive model.
WAE models and capabilities are planned for integration in the Information Awareness Office's Total Information Awareness (TIA) Program.