[Part 3] Multimedia: Opening Up a New World of Info-communications Accompanying the rapid development of digital and other technologies in recent years has been a trend toward combining and integrating character, data, sound, and image information into multimedia applications that allow greater interaction between user and medium. The year 1994 can be considered the first of the Multimedia Era, with multimedia info-communications beginning to take hold in numerous fields, such as cable TV, for which experiments in bidirectional services are soon to begin. At present there are limits to both transmission quality and the forms in which information can be transmitted, and listening to and viewing various media tend to be passive endeavors. With advances in multimedia info-communications, however, quality will improve, forms of information expression will diversify, large volumes of information will be transmittable instantaneously, and media use will become more interactive. The remainder of this report explores some of these possibilities. I. Influence of Multimedia Info-communications on Society and the Economy Recent rapid advances in digital and other info-communications technology have brought about an integration of existing media, allowing for greater user-medium interaction. In the home, transmission and exchange of video via personal computer communications networks is possible, as is home shopping using bidirectional cable TV; additionally, "video-on-demand" TV programming (in which individual viewers can select from cable suppliers specific programs that they want to watch) is being tested. In industry, diverse visual and other information is offered using such technology as ISDNs, and shared remote work systems allow users at multiple sites to share, exchange, and process various types of information instantaneously. A. Technological Background Behind the development of multimedia info-communications are rapid advances in various communications technologies, in particular digital technology. Network technology. Advances in numerous technologies allow the transmission of various forms of visual and other media. These technological advances include the digitization, speeding up, and upgraded volume-handling capabilities of networks including ISDNs and radio and cable TV networks Band MPEG and other image-compressing technology. Hardware technology. As a result of enhanced compactness and improved processing capabilities of central-processing units, whole pieces of equipment can be made more compact, and large volumes of digital information (for moving pictures and other applications) can be processed at high speeds. The human-machine interface has improved as a result of ultrafine cathode ray tube and liquid crystal displays and unit-display liquid crystal tablets that allow for input with a pen. Software technology. Multimedia operating systems that integrally handle visual, sound, and other information with time bases have been developed, allowing for easy editing of pictures and sound, as well as interaction via info-communications networks. B. The Impact of Multimedia Info-communications Based on coming technological advances and a new nationwide info-communications infrastructure, the MPT estimates that by 2010 high-speed, high-capacity, bidirectional communications will be a reality, creating such new businesses as TV shopping, and that the multimedia marketplace will be worth 123 trillion, employing 2.4 million people. Recognizing the importance of clarifying the social and economic impact of these changes, the MPT has commissioned a survey. The prospective uses of multimedia info-communications and their impact on daily life, the economy, and society as discerned by the survey are summarized here. 1. Developments Developments within this century. Respondents to the survey believed that image communications, computer graphics production equipment, and interactive televisions will be in use before the end of the 20th century, making it possible to converse with people at great distances, to transmit images that one has created, and to obtain desired information. Developments in the 21st century. According to respondents, multimedia developments in the early part of the 21st century would include the popularization of moving-picture databases and portable multimedia terminals; advanced human interface technology, such as ambiguous searching, electronic secretaries, media conversion, and navigation; and databases from around the world in the form of electronic libraries and electronic company catalogs. Such applications will allow for easy access to and transmission of any desired information. Respondents also felt that three-dimensional image transmission, telework systems, and automatic translation would be developed, allowing for more natural social exchanges among people around the world and sophisticated cooperative work applications. The situation will be similar for exchanges on info-communications networks brought about by virtual-reality communications and multimodal interfaces. Basic research on communications technology encompassing vertual reality (ATR Communications Systems Laboratories) 2. Economic and Social Impact Impact on individuals. Individuals will be able to share ideas more freely, using automatic translation and transmitting computer graphics images that they have created and processed. Overcoming regional and generational barriers, people will be more able to freely share common hobbies and interests. Mass media information will be put on the databases including image and sound; using conditional searches, integrated information will be retrievable in single units. People will be able to provide information about what is happening around them and consequently efficiently receive information that they desire. Making reservations and purchasing tickets using a cable TV system Impact on households. Households in widely separated parts of the world will be able to transmit ultrafine moving pictures to each other, making direct communication possible, and family members separated by distance will be able to relax with one another on networks. People will be able to enjoy various amusements in their own home, with the sensation that they have actually gone out. Video games that are accessed through communications networks Impact on industry. Various fields commerce, medicine, entertainment will offer a variety of new services, such as shopping and electronic newspapers, and the businesses offering new info-communications services will be major supports of the 21st-century economy, opening up new markets, hiring numerous employees, and helping sustain Japan's economic growth. New networks will allow producers to send product information directly to homes and then make the product after receiving an order, and to provide further information to users according to their needs. This will ultimately eliminate steps in the distribution process and make inventory management more efficient; producers and consumers will be more closely connected, allowing the latter to receive services specific to their needs. The mass media themselves will be able to change to meet people's various needs. Companies will be able to instantaneously retrieve images, materials on digitized databases, and other information; process it; draw up plans; and share the information with in-house and outside specialists. This will allow for sophisticated, cooperative applications, in such areas as design and movie production. Labor spent on gathering information and transporting materials will be decreased substantially, raising productivity. Using highly realistic, ultrafine image technology, people will be able to work at home and interact with office staff as if they themselves were in the office (or a conference, etc.), thus saving the time and effort that would otherwise be wasted on commuting, creating a pleasant work environment, and ultimately contributing to the preservation of the global environment. Impact on education. Info-communications networks will allow lectures by specialists in a variety of fields to be sent to homes throughout the country; individualized lessons will also be provided in the same way. Such innovations will put students' individual abilities to the best use and create an interesting educational environment. Adults will also be able to avail themselves of lifelong educational opportunities using new networks and automatic translation. Lectures from around the country and world will come to their own homes in their native language. Impact on medicine and social welfare. Advances in home health care services will result from multimedia info-communications. For example, using home-based medical support systems, family doctors will be better able to manage children's health and consult on diagnosis and treatment; family doctors will also be able to consult with specialists for information and assistance. Additionally, social welfare resources will be used more effectively. For example, elderly people living alone and others needing rehabilitative services will be able to use info-communications networks to contact specialists at remote locations and receive appropriate guidance and assistance. Impact on government administration. Municipal government services will be made available via info-communications networks, and citizens will be able to receive government information, make requests known to officials, and present and receive important papers, all via networks. This will speed up various bureaucratic processes and enhance citizens' convenience. 3. Contributing to Society's Goals As they influence various aspects of life, as just noted, new multimedia applications will contribute positively to society's goals in the 21st century, as follows. An environment that respects individuality and sensitivity. Multimedia info-communications will contribute to an environment in which information reflecting individual interests can be exchanged, individual ability enhanced, and education in areas of personal interest offered. A truly abundant life. Multimedia info-communications will allow households to obtain the information they need in the form and detail that they desire, to have out-of-the-ordinary experiences, and to link directly with producers, thus providing them with a wider choice of products. A pleasant aging society. Multimedia info-communications will allow older people to maintain intimate contact with their families even when they live separately, take part in simple learning activities at home, and receive advanced medical and social services at home. Continuing economic development. Multimedia info-communications will contribute to Japan's economic development in various ways, including the creation of new services, such as TV shopping, and thus new jobs, markets, production, sales, and other corporate activities. Balanced regional development. Multimedia info-communications will encourage regional economic revitalization and therefore help narrow interregional economic differentials. By directly linking consumers and regional producers, info-communications networks will enable unique regional industries to develop. Performing job-related tasks at long distances over networks will permit companies to decentralize their operations and allow people to move back to depopulated rural areas. Medical, social, and educational services will also become widely available in regional areas. A borderless world. International exchanges by individuals and organically linked international activities of corporations will be helped by info-communications networks as the world becomes increasingly borderless. An environment-friendly society. As working at a distance, satellite offices, and cooperative remote work activities become more common, movement of people and materials will be replaced by information transmission. Consequently, carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions will be reduced, which will contribute to a better global environment. 4. Necessary Conditions for Multimedia Development Respondents to the MPT survey felt that certain issues will need to be worked out or technologies developed, as noted below, if multimedia info-communications are to have a positive influence on society. A program delineating the purposes and the ultimate status of new networks High-speed, high-capacity optical fiber and broadband radio systems, which would allow for transmission of visual and other high-capacity digital information in real time Superior human-machine interfaces, such as electronic secretaries and voice input and media conversion devices, that will allow users to send information easily and retrieve desired information from large volumes of data Appealing applications that meet the needs of users in a variety of fields Methods of protecting property rights, and processing related information, as newly created software is distributed on info-communications networks Creation and popularization of consistent systems of info-communications, since not all areas of society (education, government administration, etc.) are necessarily using or planning to use info-communications Establishment of a fee system and lowering of rates, to ensure that, for example, people living in remote areas and needing large volumes of visual information for education will be able to make use of the new technology Lower prices for home terminal equipment, to ensure that people who need to use the new technology will be able to do so Changes in basic social assumptions over the long term for example, that commuting time is more important than work results, that work and negotiations have to take place face-to-face with others, that everything must be done on paper While recognizing that multimedia usage would bring great benefit to people, survey respondents were also concerned about major social problems that could arise (as noted below) and stated that appropriate means of resolving them would need to be developed. Maintenance of privacy and information security, given the potential for "trespassing" into networks Assurance of reliability and adequate backup as info-communications networks become lifelines; for example, prevention of earthquake damage to networks and high-capacity corporate databases, which would paralyze people's lives and business activities Development of a media environment with user-friendly human-machine interfaces, easily accessible information, fair usage rates, and reasonably priced equipment, so that all users not just those skilled in communications technology or with money can reap the benefits of multimedia info-communications Agreement on manners and rules for network usage, given the potential for libelous expression with so many people exchanging information in so many ways